Fantasy Boiz · 2026 Week 3
Fantasy Boiz — 2026 Week 3
I was lazy as fuck and had to sandbag the newsletter this week.
The $25 and the high score
Amato high at 154.63. Ahmad lowest at 100.36, and he owes the 25 dollars.
Neither of those was the favorite going into Monday night. Salmaan was 53% to take the high score with Hurts and Monangai still to play — they put up 14.72, and he finished 4th, 7.62 short of Amato.
Lowest score was a spicy race. Choi peaked at 79% to pay and was still 72% going into Monday. Ahmad was 21%. Saquon went for 8.5, Philly's defense scored 0.3, and Choi was already done at 103.34 — so Ahmad crossed 50% at Mon 8:10p and paid from behind. Tsao also spent part of the weekend at 45% before a 131.53 got him out.
Betting
Eleven wagers on two games, and the house got cleaned out — $95 staked, $75 paid to nine winners, $20 collected from two losers, so I'm down $55 of FAAB. Everybody picked Irish and Bhuh, and Irish and Bhuh both won.
The only two losing tickets were Hunter and Josh, $10 each on Hunter — and Hunter hedged $10 on Bhuh in the other game, so he broke even and Josh is the only man in the league who lost money this week. Irish went 2-for-2 for +$20 by betting on himself and on Bhuh, the best week anyone's had. Choi placed his first bet of the season, $5 on Bhuh, and won it, which is more than his roster managed.
Nobody triggered the three-in-a-row rule. Irish and Chan are each on two straight — the next correct pick from either of them and I'm doubling it.
Running season totals. Records are bets won-lost, not team records.
| Bettor | Record | Staked | Net |
|---|---|---|---|
| Matthew McNamara | 3-2 | $40 | +$20 |
| Ahmad | 2-0 | $20 | +$20 |
| Alex Amato | 2-0 | $20 | +$20 |
| Adam Brandon | 3-2 | $50 | +$10 |
| Justin Chan | 3-2 | $35 | +$5 |
| Derrick Choi | 1-0 | $5 | +$5 |
| Daniel Nguyen | 2-2 | $40 | even |
| Eric Wang | 2-2 | $40 | even |
| Hunter | 1-1 | $20 | even |
| Josh Demeo | 1-1 | $20 | even |
| Bhuh | 0-0 | — | — |
| Jon Tsao | 0-0 | — | — |
| Kerry Chen | 0-0 | — | — |
| Salmaan | 0-0 | — | — |
The injury report
Everybody on a roster who got hurt this week, whether or not it cost them. Status is Sleeper's as of Wednesday.
New this week:
- Baker Mayfield (Hunter) — QB, out, dislocated thumb. Left after 12.28; his undrafted
backup went 0-for-4 with an interception.
- Mike Evans (Eric) — WR, out, ribs. Left after a 40% target share and 12.4 points in 29
minutes, and finished on 10.9.
- De'Von Achane (Chan) — RB, hurt on the 5th play of the game and now out RoS. 1.70.
- Justin Jefferson (Choi) — WR, out, ankle. Left at the end of Minnesota's first drive, 4.20.
- Breece Hall (Amato) — RB, out, thigh. Left early, week-to-week. 7.00.
- Jalen Coker (Amato) — WR, out, minor quad. 2.80.
- Travis Etienne (Irish) — RB, out, hamstring. Left mid-third quarter, 8.00.
- Caleb Douglas (Ahmad) — WR, out, ankle. Didn't play.
- Adonai Mitchell (Hunter) — WR, out, finger.
- Jaylen Waddle (me) — WR, questionable, boot on the ankle. 5.40.
- Josh Allen (me) — QB, questionable, knee. Played through it for 14.96.
- Mark Andrews (Hunter) — TE, questionable, hand. 3.90.
- Terrance Ferguson (Ahmad) — TE, questionable, ankle. 1.40.
- Spencer Shrader (Chan) — K, questionable, groin. Kicked for 19.70 anyway.
Still out:
- Bhuh's whole quarterback room — Jayden Daniels (elbow, out) and Jaxson Dart (knee, meniscus,
now on IR).
- Caleb Williams (Choi) — hamstring, out.
- Puka Nacua (Tsao) — hip, out.
- Nico Collins (Hunter) — hamstring, out.
- A.J. Brown and Jordyn Tyson (Eric) — both on IR.
- Alec Pierce and Jordan Mason (Salmaan) — both on IR. Josh Jacobs is still unavailable.
- RJ Harvey (Bhuh) — questionable, concussion.
Stars of the week — the 30-point club
Four guys cleared 30, down from five last week and nine in the opener.
- Jahmyr Gibbs, 38.40 (Salmaan) — 20 car, 99 yd, 2 TD, 7/8 rec, 65 yd, 1 TD. Leads every RB
in targets per route run this season, even excluding screens and designed looks.
- Bijan Robinson, 36.30 (Eric) — 29 car, 194 yd, 2 TD, 2/2 rec, 19 yd.
- Jaxon Smith-Njigba, 31.86 (me) — 10/14 rec, 128 yd, 2 TD. The #1 player in fantasy.
- Brock Purdy, 31.28 (Amato) — 15/27, 297 yd, 4 TD, 2 car, 34 yd. Leads every quarterback at
21.9 passing points a game.
Losers of the week — started, projected, and did nothing
Healthy, started, and nothing to show for it:
- Drake Maye, 4.76 (Eric) — projected 18.6, missed by 13.8, the biggest miss of the week.
14/25, 199 yd, 2 INT, 1 fumble lost. 4.5 passing points a game this season, the worst of any quarterback with three starts.
- Tetairoa McMillan, 2.70 (Bhuh) — projected 11.9, missed by 9.2. 2/5 for 17 yards, one
target after Coker left.
- Jadarian Price, 0.70 (me) — projected 9.5, missed by 8.8. Fumbled in the first quarter, and got 2 of 13 backfield carries after it.
- TreVeyon Henderson, 3.40 (Choi) — projected 11.6, missed by 8.2. 8 car, 23 yd. A 16.7%
success rate, last of every back with 20 carries.
- Dalton Kincaid, 2.80 (Irish) — projected 10.8, missed by 8.0. 2/3, 38 yd, 1 fumble lost.
Waiver wire
Wednesday's run was a bloodbath: 82 claims, 23 players moved, and nearly all of it was people chasing this week's injuries. Achane, Breece Hall, Etienne and Mayfield all got hurt, and their backups were the whole market.
The big three:
- Ollie Gordon — me, $101. Second time this year I've won a player I didn't actually want. First was Jameis, and now it's the Dolphins' RB2.
- Braelon Allen — Eric, $54. The most contested player of the week: ten teams put in a claim.
They're lucky I blew my load on Ollie; the $71 I bid would've been good enough to win. Amato bid 47, just $7 short, which is a painful way to lose, but luckily they have decent RB depth.
- Kalif Raymond — Ahmad, $37. Beat Eric (17), Irish (8) and me (4). Dropped Xavier Worthy to make
room 😂
The rest that mattered:
- Keenan Allen — Tsao, $35. Over Irish at 26. With Pierce out, Downs, Warren and Allen took 83.4%
of Indy's targets. Surprisingly spicy for a washed-up WR.
- Jaylen Wright — Chan, $26. The other Miami back, and Chan is the one who lost Achane. I bid 42
and miscalculated my FAAB, which let Chan get the better replacement for cheaper.
- Tyreek Hill — Eric, $21. Amato bid $0. No surprise to see Amato & Kerry bid on this, but Eric??? $21 FAAB to set a horrible example for Coco.
- Keaton Mitchell — AB, $20. AB is buying the guy who's eating his own Omarion Hampton's routes.
- Case Keenum — Choi, $6. Nice to see Choi get involved on waivers and have 2 healthy QBs on the roster. Most likely a product of him being on US time this week.
Most active: Ahmad filed 16 claims and won 3. Amato filed 13 and won 2, both for $5 or less. Bhuh filed none.
Still holding the most FAAB: Amato has 215 of his 1,000 left, then Salmaan 200 and Choi 197. I have the least at 38.
| Final | Win % low | Time ahead | Lead changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 147.01 – 146.20 | 27.3% | 51.4% | 2 |
| When | Play | Swing | Score | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 12:34p | Garrett Wilson (Adam Brandon) — Q4 04:11 · (Shotgun) G.Smith pass deep right to G.Wilson to DET 1 for 22 yards. | 17% | 88.54 – 78.10 | Adam Brandon 56% |
| Sun 4:29p | Lamar Jackson (Adam Brandon) — Q4 01:34 · L.Jackson pass short middle to M.Hibner for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | 16% | 119.64 – 141.42 | Adam Brandon 50% |
| Sun 4:43p | Zay Flowers (Adam Brandon) — Q4 00:07 · (Shotgun) L.Jackson pass deep middle to Z.Flowers to DAL 38 for 27 yards. | 15% | 119.64 – 145.12 | Adam Brandon 62% |
| Sun 8:16p | DEN defense (Salmaan) — Q4 05:01 · (Shotgun) M.Stafford pass short left intended for K.Williams INTERCEPTED by T.Hufanga at DEN 34. T.Hufanga for 66… | 32% | 130.64 – 146.20 | Salmaan 82% |
| Mon 6:36p | Jalen Hurts (Salmaan) — Q2 00:01 · (No Huddle) J.Hurts up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. | 20% | 140.83 – 146.20 | Salmaan 85% |
| Mon 7:55p | Jalen Hurts (Salmaan) — Q4 06:40 · (No Huddle, Shotgun) J.Hurts scrambles left tackle to CHI 27 for 20 yards. | 19% | 146.71 – 146.20 | Salmaan 86% |
AB took a 13.91-point lead into Monday night with nobody left to play. Salmaan had Hurts and Monangai, and even down 13.91 he was the 87% favorite. They scored 14.72 between them and he won by 0.81 — the 9th-narrowest game in league history out of 491.
It came down to a Monday-night scramble: Hurts ran for 20 on a no-huddle possession and that was the play that put Salmaan in front, 146.71 to 146.20. Before that, Denver's defense took a Stafford interception 66 yards to the house for the week's biggest single swing, 32% to Salmaan. Two lead changes, eleven swings of 10% or more, and Salmaan was only ahead for 51% of the clock. That's his third straight win over AB; he leads the series 5-3.
Gibbs carried it — 38.40, three total touchdowns and three of the eleven swings. Rest of the roster was fine at best. DK Metcalf 10.6 and still the league's biggest underperformer at receiver (14.4 expected a game, 8.9 actual). DJ Moore 9.7.
AB is going to be sick about this one. He left 28.44 on the bench in a game he lost by 0.81. Aaron Rodgers sat there for 23.68 while the Rams defense started for 4.6. Kenyon Sadiq put up 21.5 on the bench, 7 catches for 105 and a touchdown. His best possible lineup scores 174.64. Sam Darnold's 28.66 and Garrett Wilson's 23.2 did everything they could. Last week he won by 0.20 on a pass deflection nobody could see; this week the luck came due, and he's 1-2.
Omarion Hampton is the other worry: three different Chargers backs ran more routes than him, including fullback Alec Ingold. He got all three carries inside the 10 and didn't score, and Keaton Mitchell came in to score on 3rd and goal.
| Final | Win % low | Time ahead | Lead changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 147.90 – 123.05 | 19.0% | 58.5% | 18 |
| When | Play | Swing | Score | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 1:44p | Javonte Williams (Justin Chan) — Q1 04:35 · (Shotgun) J.Williams right guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | 12% | 94.20 – 103.16 | Justin Chan 81% |
| Sun 1:45p | Mike Evans (Eric Wang) — Q2 15:00 · (Shotgun) B.Purdy pass deep right to M.Evans for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | 18% | 103.00 – 103.16 | Justin Chan 64% |
| Sun 2:18p | Kyler Murray (Justin Chan) — Q2 04:17 · (No Huddle, Shotgun) K.Murray pass deep left to J.Addison for 41 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | 13% | 104.00 – 111.26 | Justin Chan 76% |
| Sun 2:36p | Eddy Pineiro (Eric Wang) — Q2 00:04 · E.Pineiro 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-J.Weeks, Holder-C.Waitman. | 15% | 111.10 – 113.16 | Justin Chan 58% |
| Sun 3:45p | George Kittle (Eric Wang) — Q4 08:46 · B.Purdy pass short middle to G.Kittle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | 29% | 123.10 – 121.64 | Eric Wang 66% |
| Sun 4:07p | George Kittle (Eric Wang) — Q4 01:36 · B.Purdy pass deep right to G.Kittle for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | 33% | 130.60 – 125.72 | Eric Wang 93% |
18 lead changes. The most of any matchup this season, the previous high was 12. Eric was down to 19% at 1:44 Sunday afternoon, trailing 103.16 to 94.20 after a Javonte Williams touchdown for Chan, and it didn't settle until two Kittle touchdowns in the 49ers' fourth quarter — +29% at 3:45 and then +33% at 4:07. That evens the series between the two of them at 3-3.
Bijan 36.30 on 194 rushing yards. Geno 27.04. Kittle 23.2 on 41.7% of the 49ers' targets after Mike Evans left. Luther Burden put up 16.3 on Monday night, not that it mattered by then. And somehow the most Eric thing about the week is that he won by 24.85 with 27.74 on the bench — Jacoby Brissett 23.6 behind a Bengals defense that went −1.0, and Drake Maye as the starting QB for 4.76. What's the point of keeping Drake Maye when you can draft Geno & Jacoby 😂
Chan's the one who should be annoyed. Marcus Mariota sat on the bench for 20.42 again, and Juwan Johnson for 19.3. Chan could've really used this win. With Achane going out for the season, he's going to have trouble over the next 3 months avoiding the toilet bowl. His RB room is one of the worst in the league and there aren't really good options to repair it. Maybe he'll get better scheduling luck going forward, though: Chan's eaten 463.70 points against, second-most in the league.
| Final | Win % low | Time ahead | Lead changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 120.34 – 100.36 | 31.5% | 69.6% | 0 |
| When | Play | Swing | Score | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 12:49p | Jaxon Smith-Njigba (Daniel Nguyen) — Q4 11:57 · (Shotgun) S.Darnold pass short left to J.Smith-Njigba for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | 12% | 68.50 – 39.66 | Daniel Nguyen 51% |
| Sun 8:21p | Matthew Stafford (Ahmad) — Q4 03:46 · (No Huddle, Shotgun) M.Stafford pass deep right to K.Mumpfield for 48 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | 12% | 110.54 – 90.44 | Daniel Nguyen 78% |
I was never behind. Zero lead changes, favorite for 70% of the clock, and the low point was 32% before JSN caught an 11-yard touchdown from Darnold. 3-0. I'll take it, but this is still two guys and a bag of trash: JSN 31.86 and Brock Bowers 24.1 in his debut on a 43% target share. Josh Allen only 14.96. Jadarian Price fumbled and disappeared. After showboating my top score last week, this was a good reality check to bring me back down to Earth. The trio of JA, JSN and Brock Bowers is kind of the same recipe Choi used to win last season, tho 👀
What a sad weekend to spend with Ahmad as he lamented his touchdown-less team. Stafford 21.9 and Goff 19.36 were the only ones to find the end zone, and the rest of the lineup did basically nothing: Jonathan Taylor 8.2, Likely 2.3, the Eagles defense 0.3. Even more surprising: Saquon had 11 carries for 73 yards in the first half and still only finished with 8.5. Luckily they're not the only team sitting at 1-2, and there's plenty of season left to turn it around. Last year the Habibis were near the top of the leaderboard going into the IST before they flamed out. Maybe this year will be the opposite.
| Final | Win % low | Time ahead | Lead changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 154.63 – 103.34 | 44.7% | 100.0% | 5 |
| When | Play | Swing | Score | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 1:20p | Deebo Samuel (Derrick Choi) — Q1 08:40 · (Shotgun) B.Purdy pass short left to M.Evans to SF 20 for 2 yards. Lateral to D.Samuel for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | 23% | 56.45 – 78.20 | Derrick Choi 55% |
| Sun 1:20p | Brock Purdy (Kerry Chen) — Q1 08:40 · (Shotgun) B.Purdy pass short left to M.Evans to SF 20 for 2 yards. Lateral to D.Samuel for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | 12% | 63.73 – 78.20 | Kerry Chen 57% |
The reigning champion is 0-3. Baby Choi is well on his way to becoming a calendar model upon birth. Kerry & Amato have now beaten him six straight counting the playoffs, 6-1 in the regular season. He's last in points at 326.18 and 4-29 against the rest of the league.
The game was over early. Choi's one moment was Deebo Samuel's 80-yard hook-and-lateral touchdown, worth 21% — and the same play gave Amato 10% back, because Purdy threw it. Amato was the favorite for 100% of the game.
Choi started Justin Jefferson, who left after the first drive for 4.2, and the Packers defense for −5.5 with the Texans on the bench for 11.6. 22.70 left on the bench in total. At this point it feels like Choi is holding onto the Texans D just to taunt Ahmad. Caleb's still out. I really think a Penix trade could do him some good here.
Purdy (QB1) 31.28 with four touchdowns. Shough 24.8. Chase 20.3. And Amato still left Jordan Addison's 17.5 on the bench, who got 34.6% of Minnesota's targets after Jefferson went down. Breece got hurt, but Amato is 3-0 with the most points in the league. So far they've been the most consistent team, never dropping below 140 this year.
| Final | Win % low | Time ahead | Lead changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 137.47 – 112.86 | 12.8% | 67.2% | 2 |
| When | Play | Swing | Score | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 1:18p | MIN defense (Matthew McNamara) — Q1 09:00 · R.Dixon punts 41 yards to MIN 14, Center-E.Deckers. M.Price for 86 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | 13% | 79.02 – 63.28 | Hunter 53% |
| Sun 1:53p | Derrick Henry (Hunter) — Q1 01:22 · Direct snap to D.Henry. D.Henry left guard for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. | 11% | 85.42 – 80.30 | Hunter 74% |
| Sun 3:59p | CeeDee Lamb (Matthew McNamara) — Q4 12:25 · (Shotgun) D.Prescott pass deep left to C.Lamb pushed ob at BAL 46 for 49 yards. | 15% | 119.92 – 97.60 | Matthew McNamara 62% |
Irish snaps a 3-game losing streak (counting last year's playoffs) against the guy he voted dead last in the survey. go hawks.
It wasn't comfortable. Irish was down to 13% and the biggest play of his day came from his own defense: Minnesota's 86-yard punt return touchdown. Then CeeDee Lamb caught a 49-yarder in the fourth, worth 15%, and it was done. Vikings defense 22.15, Kenneth Walker 20.3, Jordan Love 19.48.
Kirk Cousins has now outscored Justin Herbert three weeks in a row. Herbert 13.74, Cousins 21.22 on the bench. I even called for Cousins to take the job last week. Hopefully he takes the advice this week.
Hunter scored 112.86 and it wasn't close — Burrow 22.58, Henry 21.4, and then Baker Mayfield left with a dislocated thumb after 12.28. Jakobi Meyers sat on the bench for 15.9 behind Blake Corum's 2.5. DeVonta Smith added 9.5 on Monday night.
Hunter's tirades have been all-time greats, especially so early in the season. I appreciate him for his Conor McGregor-level fight selling, but I think most of the league was happy to see Conor McGregor-level results this week too. Irish winning is a win for the good guys. After calling him gay and submissive all season, what does getting beat by Irish mean for Hunter? Here's a list of guys that I think that Hunter is more gay and submissive than:
| Final | Win % low | Time ahead | Lead changes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 149.01 – 131.53 | 64.6% | 100.0% | 0 |
Last week's preview called this the quietest game of the season, projected for a combined 239. They put up 280.54.
Bhuh lost both quarterbacks last week and scored 149.01 while only starting one. Deshaun Watson went 20.26 with 10 real rush attempts, his most since 2020. Drake London 25.4, Warren 20.6 on 21 of 23 backfield opportunities, Michael Wilson 20.4, McCaffrey 20.1. Harold Fannin went 7-51-2 on the bench while McMillan started for 2.7. Favorite for 100% of the game. Somehow Jordan and Bhuh came out of the double-QB-injury week with their highest score of the season.
Bo Nix 23.14, Jeremiyah Love 19.9 once he finally got the backfield (21 of 23 carries). The Hoop Boiz put up their best score of the season, but this week just adds to their ever-growing list of embarrassments. I'm sure they thought they had a cakewalk this week, but instead they got clapped. They ducked the lowest score, but they're still only 6-27 against the field this season.
Power Rankings, week 3
Blended 54% roster talent / 46% results — shifting toward results every week. Week 2 was 62/38.
| # | Trend | Team | Rec | All-play | PF | Results | Roster | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ▲1 | Kerry Chen 🍀 | 3-0 | 27-6 | 1 | 1 | 6 | First in points at 475.69, first on results, and 3-0. My call over the model, which still grades the roster 6th. |
| 2 | ▼1 | Salmaan 💀 | 2-1 | 26-7 | 2 | 3 | 1 | Best roster in the league, 26-7 against the field, and needed a Monday-night Hurts scramble to beat AB by 0.81. |
| 3 | = | Daniel Nguyen 🍀 | 3-0 | 22-11 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3-0 and never trailed Ahmad. |
| 4 | = | Eric Wang 🍀 | 2-1 | 19-14 | 7 | 4 | 2 | Won an 18-lead-change game with 27.74 on the bench and Drake Maye at QB. |
| 5 | ▲2 | Matthew McNamara 💀 | 1-2 | 19-14 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 4th in points, first win, and he's still eaten 493.99 against — most in the league. |
| 6 | ▼1 | Ahmad | 1-2 | 13-20 | 10 | 10 | 3 | 3rd-best roster, 10th on results, and paying the $25. |
| 7 | ▲3 | Bhuh 🍀 | 2-1 | 17-16 | 5 | 5 | 12 | Worst roster in the league, both starting quarterbacks hurt, 149.01. |
| 8 | = | Hunter 💀 | 1-2 | 15-18 | 9 | 8 | 7 | Lost to the man who voted him dead last, and Baker's thumb is dislocated. |
| 9 | ▼3 | Justin Chan 💀 | 1-2 | 17-16 | 6 | 7 | 11 | Mariota on the bench for 20.42 again. 463.70 points against, second-most. |
| 10 | ▼1 | Adam Brandon | 1-2 | 13-20 | 8 | 9 | 9 | Lost by 0.81 with 28.44 on the bench. His best lineup scores 174.64. |
| 11 | ▲1 | Jon Tsao 🍀 | 1-2 | 6-27 | 11 | 11 | 10 | 6-27 against the field. |
| 12 | ▼1 | Derrick Choi 💀 | 0-3 | 4-29 | 12 | 12 | 8 | Reigning champion. 0-3, last in points, 4-29 all-play. |
All-play = record if you played the whole league every week. PF = points-for rank. Results = record, luck-adjusted all-play, points-for, recent form. Roster = value of the best legal lineup on FantasyPros rest-of-season. 🍀 luckier than the all-play says, 💀 unluckier.
Week 4 preview — what to watch
Amato vs Salmaan is the game of the week — #1 against #2 in the power rankings, and the top two scorers in the league at 475.69 and 467.28. Sal seeded them #9 of 12 in the survey. Amato has won the last two meetings.
Both Erics voted Irish dead last. Irish leads that series 5-1 and has won the last three. Irish is hot after beating one bully this week, I think he has a pretty great shot to make it 2 in a row.
Choi vs Tsao is the bottom-two game, and Choi voted Tsao dead last. He's also won three straight in the matchup, so this is his best shot at not being 0-4. Tsao is the 11-point favorite.
Generated from newsletter.md. Scores and stats pulled from Sleeper; win-probability curves reconstructed from NFL play-by-play under this league's scoring; advanced usage notes hand-curated. Corrections to the commissioner, who will ignore them.